April’s results can often leave lasting first impressions over the course of a season, but May is when those early outcomes are either crystalized or rebutted by the accumulation of a larger sample size. Let’s examine six instances of the latter as teams prepare to pass the 60-game mark—the length of the entire 2020 regular season.
Three Up1. Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds SP
Cincinnati’s southpaw has flown under the radar the past couple of years while posting a pair of sub-4.00 ERA campaigns, but he deserves recognition for a dominant May during which he led the majors with a 0.55 ERA by giving up just two runs across six starts spanning 32 2/3 innings. And the 26-year-old saved his best outing for last, limiting the highest-scoring offense in the majors to just one hit across seven innings in a win over the Chicago Cubs. That was actually Abbott’s second straight start against Chicago, and he earned a win in both games. He’ll be a serious contender to start the All-Star Game if he continues to excel over the next month.
2. Toronto Blue Jays offense
Only the Kansas City Royals scored fewer runs than the Blue Jays (81) in April. But Toronto tied for sixth in the majors in runs scored (136) in May, boosting the team’s month-to-month OPS from .634 to .785.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk and George Springer all resembled their best selves at the plate last month, and Toronto also got surprisingly robust contributions from utilitymen Addison Barger (.292/.370/.517 slash line) and Ernie Clement (.306/.349/.469). The Jays have ridden a five-game winning streak to within a half-game of the American League’s third wild-card spot, but they sure could use a healthy Max Scherzer to fill out a rotation that’s relied on bullpen games more often than would be preferred early on in the season.
3. San Francisco Giants pitching staff
The Giants collectively improved from a 3.63 ERA (12th in MLB) in April to a 2.64 ERA in May, the best mark in the majors. Robbie Ray pitched like the former Cy Young winner he is, recording a 1.38 ERA (his best-ever monthly mark) and 0.87 WHIP with 45 strikeouts and 11 walks in 39 innings. Logan Webb was his usual dependable self and Landen Roupp (1.73 ERA) displayed better control to justify his inclusion in the rotation and offset the struggles of Jordan Hicks, who was demoted to the bullpen in favor of Hayden Birdsong. Camilo Doval regained the closer’s role he lost last August and hasn’t allowed a run since April 7, while setup man Randy Rodriguez (0.68 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, 12.8 K/9) continued his breakout campaign by enjoying a scoreless May, too.
The Giants are still a half-game out of a playoff spot in a competitive National League, but San Francisco should feel confident in earning its first playoff berth since 2021.
Three Down1. Boston Red Sox middle infield
Shortstop Trevor Story and second baseman Kristian Campbell had the two lowest qualified OPS marks in all of baseball in May after both burst out of the gates strong. Campbell’s OPS dropped nearly 500 points from April to .355 as he only had one extra-base hit and 27 strikeouts in 22 games. Story wasn’t much better, slashing .158/.200/.232 with three extra-base hits and a whopping 35 strikeouts in 25 games. Their struggles are a big reason why the Red Sox are four games below .500 and have five teams between them and a wild-card spot, as well as why MLB’s highest-scoring offense in April (148 runs) slumped to the 16th-ranked offense (116 runs) in May.
2. Seattle Mariners offense
Seattle’s offense was one of the biggest pleasant surprises around the league in April, as the team’s 138 runs scored and .772 OPS both ranked in the top five of the majors despite a stagnant offseason that lowered expectations entering the season. Unfortunately, the Mariners’ May output was more in line with preseason projections, scoring 109 runs (20th in MLB) with a .681 OPS (24th).
Jorge Polanco crashed back to earth with a resounding thud as an astronomical April (1.284 OPS) gave way to a grim May (.413 OPS) while his groundball rate fittingly spiked from 30.8% to 54.4%. Catcher Cal Raleigh led the American League with 12 home runs, and that was sorely needed as the rest of the team combined for 21 homers, with no other Mariner having more than eight extra-base hits.
The Mariners’ lead in the AL West has shrunk to just a half-game over the Houston Astros, who will win their eighth straight full-season division title if no one besides Raleigh steps up on offense for Seattle.
3. San Diego Padres bullpen
Relievers are a fickle bunch, but no relief corps saw its fortunes change more from month to month than San Diego’s. After leading the majors with a sparkling 1.77 ERA through the end of April, Padres relievers ranked 26th in May with a 5.36 ERA. On a related note, their walk rate sprung from 7.9% (fifth in MLB) to 10.8% (26th).
Closer Robert Suarez leads MLB with 19 saves and has largely been excellent, but he was charged with five runs in 1/3 inning in a stunning collapse against the Los Angeles Angels. Suarez and Jeremiah Estrada both blew leads in extra innings of a loss to the Blue Jays. Alek Jacob gave up 10 earned runs over the span of two outings to more than double his ERA and prompt a demotion to Triple A. Adrian Morejon and Wandy Peralta combined to give up 10 runs in against the New York Yankees to turn a close lead into a humongous deficit. I could go on.
While a slumping offense has perhaps more directly led to San Diego going 13–13 in May after starting out 19–11, the bullpen certainly hasn’t helped matters and needs to produce results closer to its April performance if the Padres are to hang onto their playoff spot.